![\"Mexico](\"http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-tqMpLIVfTDQ\/Tyw3TsGIm2I\/AAAAAAAAE9M\/VJ5UiToUV3k\/s1600\/171211%2B235.JPG\" "\\"The")
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So, every one, from large international news sources like Washington Post to small-scale investors in Mexico real estate<\/a>,\u00c2\u00a0is talking about the newly proposed law\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0that would modify the country’s Constitution to allow direct ownership of coastal and border lands by non-Mexicans.<\/p>\n But now we all have to wonder – how long will it take for this change to gain final approval and pass the remaining hurdles?<\/p>\n This is the question I will tackle today.<\/p>\n Opinions and Guesswork …<\/strong><\/p>\n First of all, it is important to point out that speculating how long it will take to pass this modification of the Constitution<\/a> is just that – speculation. \u00c2\u00a0I will present a few opinions here and the factual evidence that supports each opinion. \u00c2\u00a0In the end we’ll have a fairly clear idea, but no final, 100% answer.<\/p>\n Changes and Optimism – The Process Could be Fast!<\/strong><\/p>\n Considering the current political climate, some people are very optimistic that the process I described yesterday could be fast – a matter of a few months. \u00c2\u00a0Personally, I get the feeling it would take considerably longer, but at the same time there are facts in favor or such strong optimism:<\/p>\n President Enrique Pena Nieto –<\/em>\u00c2\u00a0<\/strong>Besides being enthusiastic for reform (as was the last president) Pres. Pena has managed to foster a political climate in which the government is actually able to push reforms forward at a rapid pace in just the first few months of his presidency.<\/p>\n “Pact for Mexico” –<\/em> <\/strong>A key element in this climate has been the “Pact for Mexico” in which several major parties have agreed to cooperate on reforms rather than attempting to block the government. \u00c2\u00a0While this is most certainly not one of the “big” reforms (of which there are about 4 or 5) it seems that the “spirit of cooperation” is overflowing.<\/p>\n Constitutional Reform for Education Fast-tracked\u00c2\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/em>– At the beginning of this year a major education reform that required changes to 2 articles of the Constitution (3 and 73) passed the entire process from first being tabled to final approval from the majority of states in less than 2 months!!<\/strong> \u00c2\u00a0The land-ownership law is not as important, so it is unlikely to get the same special fast-track priority, but the education reform shows what’s possible under this government.<\/p>\n Telecommunications Reform Momentum -\u00c2\u00a0<\/strong><\/em>Another reform, this time for the telecommunications industry, requires changes to 8 articles of the Constitution (6, 7, 27, 28, 73, 78, 94 y 105.) \u00c2\u00a0This one is in the final stages of legislative approval for some minor changes by the senate, after which it will be presented to the state legislatures to be made law. \u00c2\u00a0It has gained enough momentum that observers expect it to follow the rapid approval of the education reform.<\/p>\n Only 2 Weeks in Chamber of Deputies\u00c2\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/em>– The reform for foreign ownership of Mexico land<\/a>\u00c2\u00a0– the one of most interest to us – is in its very early stages. \u00c2\u00a0However, it’s spectacular that it gained its initial approval from the Federal Deputies in only 2 weeks! \u00c2\u00a0Many people expect that the Senate will pass it without modification, which would make it the fastest Constitutional reform to do so of the 3.<\/p>\n Much Less is at\u00c2\u00a0<\/strong>Stake\u00c2\u00a0<\/strong>–<\/em>\u00c2\u00a0The 2 other reforms in question directly impact highly influential people, including the country’s most powerful union leader and\u00c2\u00a0Carlos Slim, the world’s richest man. \u00c2\u00a0Since the land-ownership reform doesn’t affect any rich\/powerful\/influential people negatively, it may even go through more easily (although not necessarily more quickly.)<\/p>\n 2 Dominant Parties On Board<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0– <\/em>On Tuesday, in the Chamber of Deputies, the foreign land ownership bill passed with overwhelming support (356 to 119)<\/a> backed by\u00c2\u00a0the country’s 2 most influential parties – the PRI and the PAN.<\/p>\n State Parties take Orders from Above<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n \u00c2\u00a0These 2 parties mentioned above dominate the legislatures of 28 of the 32 states. \u00c2\u00a0The approval of only 16 is needed. \u00c2\u00a0In Mexico, state parties will usually “take orders” from their federal overlords. \u00c2\u00a0So, if the 2 parties support the bill on the federal level …<\/p>\n Sponsored by Influential Politician<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n The PRI’s congressional leader, Manlio Fabio Beltrones, is one of the country’s most influential politicians and one of the 3 main sponsors of the bill.<\/p>\n “On the Other Hand …” Why it Could Take Long<\/strong><\/p>\n Other people are of the opinion that since it is a change to the Constitution, it will probably take much longer, if it even gets anywhere at all. \u00c2\u00a0Facts in favor of this less optimistic view are:<\/p>\n Lack of Success in Previous Attempts\u00c2\u00a0<\/strong>-\u00c2\u00a0<\/em>Previous attempts to make the same constitutional change, made by less influential politicians, died in stagnation.<\/p>\n Low Motivation for non-Coastal States<\/strong> -\u00c2\u00a0<\/em>Probably only 11 coastal states\u00c2\u00a0would benefit immediately from this reform. \u00c2\u00a0One of them is dominated by a party that opposes the bill.\u00c2\u00a0(There are 17 coastal states in total, but several of them don’t have any significant expat population.) \u00c2\u00a0Central states can already offer direct ownership to foreigners.<\/p>\n Renegade State Parties<\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0–<\/em>\u00c2\u00a0<\/strong>It’s not always a given that all state parties will follow their federal counterparts’ lead.<\/p>\n Negative Press from the Left<\/strong> -\u00c2\u00a0<\/em>The more solidly leftist parties oppose the change saying that it puts sovereignty in danger and opens the doors for “greedy” foreigners to “rob” poor coastal land owners of their property. \u00c2\u00a0The majority of politicians don’t take such ideas seriously, and thankfully, so far such press has been very limited. \u00c2\u00a0But if the popular press picks up on it on a large scale, state governments may focus on saving their reputation with home voters.<\/p>\n Political Power Games –<\/em>\u00c2\u00a0<\/strong>This bill would cost banks the money foreign owners pay them to maintain the Bank Trust. \u00c2\u00a0Some observers are noticing that there is currently a major bank reform bill which will also impact bank income. \u00c2\u00a0There is speculation that either banks will try to stop the land-ownership reform or the government may negotiate it away in favor of the more important reform if the banks present major opposition.<\/p>\n Many of these points are the “other side of the coin” and could be countered by points above, or vice versa. \u00c2\u00a0We can’t really say either view is the “final word.”<\/p>\n My Verdict – Reserved Optimism<\/strong><\/p>\n While I’m not by any means an expert on Mexican politics, by putting the two opposing opinions together, I come to a conclusion of reserved optimism.<\/p>\n I would say the political situation and other facts point to more optimism than pessimism. \u00c2\u00a0Mexico’s political steam is going strong and seems to be moving reform full tilt ahead in a superb multi-lateral cooperation that has not been seen before, stream-lining important constitutional reform. \u00c2\u00a0In such a context, you could easily imagine the land-ownership bill being made law quickly.<\/p>\n However, there are also real possibilities of delays and obstacles. \u00c2\u00a0Instead of jumping to the conclusion that it’s all said and done, we’ll do better to sit back and watch – watch optimistically, but not making any assumptions until we actually see this bill move forward!<\/p>\n Keep up with this blog for any updates.<\/p>\n —<\/p>\n Thomas Lloyd<\/strong> graduated from Purdue University Krannert School of Management with a degree in Management\/Financial Option Investments. He has been living, investing, and working professionally in Mexico for over 16 years. In the summer of 2009, he received the first federally applied Mexico Real Estate Degree <\/strong>and Mexico Professional Real Estate License<\/strong> S.E.P. #5978657. He is the president of Top Mexico Real Estate. Contact him at<\/em> (512) 879-6546<\/span><\/strong>.<\/p>\n The TOP<\/span> Mexico Real Estate<\/a><\/em> Network; “Mexico\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Leading Network of Specialists for Finding and Purchasing Mexican Properties Safely!\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/em><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n Estos \u00c3\u00baltimos d\u00c3\u00adas hemos estado discutiendo sobre la propuesta de reforma a la ley, en su art\u00c3\u00adculo 27, para permitir a los ciudadanos extranjeros comprar propiedades en las playas de M\u00c3\u00a9xico, algo hasta hoy en d\u00c3\u00ada prohibido<\/strong>. Prohibido en t\u00c3\u00a9rminos legales, sin embargo permitido a trav\u00c3\u00a9s de los denominados “fideicomisos”.<\/p>\n Aunque estos fideicomisos permiten a los extranjeros hacerse de propiedades en las zonas lim\u00c3\u00adtrofes costeras del pa\u00c3\u00ads, estos mismos son costosos y tardados, y en t\u00c3\u00a9rminos reales, benefician \u00c3\u00banicamente a las instituciones bancarias. No a los desarrolladores o vendedores, y ciertamente no a los compradores.<\/p>\n Con esta reforma a la ley lo que se pretende es regularizar algo que en la pr\u00c3\u00a1ctica ya se hace, lo que ayudar\u00c3\u00ada a incentivar la inversi\u00c3\u00b3n inmobiliaria en muchos de los destinos tur\u00c3\u00adsticos del pa\u00c3\u00ads.<\/p>\n Optimismo frente a la ley.<\/strong><\/p>\n Aunque ciertamente el proceso para reformar una ley en la constituci\u00c3\u00b3n puede ser tardado, las evidencias muestran que en los \u00c3\u00baltimos meses, con la nueva administraci\u00c3\u00b3n del presidente Enrique Pe\u00c3\u00b1a Nieto, las reformas han sido aprobadas de forma acelerada y en consenso, algo hasta hoy in\u00c3\u00a9dito en la pol\u00c3\u00adtica nacional.<\/p>\n Pacto por M\u00c3\u00a9xico.<\/strong><\/p>\n El denominado Pacto por M\u00c3\u00a9xico, una alianza entre los 3 partidos dominantes en las c\u00c3\u00a1maras de diputados, senadores y congresos locales, ha hecho que en M\u00c3\u00a9xico se aprueben reformas a la ley de suma importancia (algunas afectando a personajes de gran influencia en la vida nacional) de manera in\u00c3\u00a9dita en los \u00c3\u00baltimos 5 meses. Entre ellas la reforma a la educaci\u00c3\u00b3n y la reforma en telecomunicaciones.<\/p>\n Esto hace pensar que la aprobaci\u00c3\u00b3n de la reforma emitida por el c\u00c3\u00a1mara de diputados ser\u00c3\u00a1 aprobada en su totalidad, de la misma forma que los ejemplos anteriores, de forma expedita y consensual.<\/p>\n Si bien esta es la tendencia marcada hasta el momento, es inteligente mantener las reservas y no soltar las campanas al vuelo. Despu\u00c3\u00a9s de\u00c2\u00a0todo en este pa\u00c3\u00ads todo puede pasar, \u00c2\u00bfcierto?. Sin embargo las expectativas son buenas, y el panorama pinta bien. Estamos ante una ley que podr\u00c3\u00ada ser el parteaguas de los bienes ra\u00c3\u00adces en M\u00c3\u00a9xico. Una ley que ayudar\u00c3\u00ada a promover el mercado inmobiliario tur\u00c3\u00adstico del pa\u00c3\u00ads de una\u00c2\u00a0forma sin precedentes.<\/p>\n \u00c2\u00bfQu\u00c3\u00a9 falta?<\/strong><\/p>\n La ley ya ha sido aprobada por la c\u00c3\u00a1mara de diputados y ha sido turnada a la c\u00c3\u00a1mara de senadores para su revisi\u00c3\u00b3n y probable aprobaci\u00c3\u00b3n.De ser as\u00c3\u00ad, necesitar\u00c3\u00ada la aprobaci\u00c3\u00b3n de por lo menos la mitad de las legislaturas estatales del pa\u00c3\u00ads.<\/p>\n Lo importante es entender que el primer paso ya se ha dado, no queda m\u00c3\u00a1s que aguardar y \u00c2\u00a1esperar lo mejor!.<\/p>\n![\"Mexico](\"http:\/\/blogs.cfr.org\/lindsay\/files\/2012\/07\/lindsay-pena-nieto-2012-07-02.jpg\" "\\"President")
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